EV Bet EngineProbability-Based Football Analytics
Currently in Development

A Smarter Way to Understand Football Betting Markets

EV Bet Engine is an independent football analytics project built around probability modelling, fair odds, expected value, and continuous validation.

Preparing for the upcoming European football season.

Explore the ProjectContact

Built from Research, Not Predictions

EV Bet Engine began as a personal research project created to improve football betting decisions through statistical analysis rather than intuition.

The objective is not to predict every match correctly.

The objective is to estimate probabilities, compare them with market prices, identify expected value, manage risk responsibly, and learn from every completed match.

The project was validated under live market conditions during the FIFA World Cup 2026 and is now being developed into a long-term football analytics platform.

02From Data to Decision
  1. 01Data Collection
  2. 02Data Normalization
  3. 03Strategy Screening
  4. 04Probability Models
  5. 05Fair Odds
  6. 06Market Comparison
  7. 07Expected Value
  8. 08Stake Management
  9. 09Final Review
  10. 10Continuous Improvement
03A Multi-Model Research Framework
M1

Poisson

Baseline goal-distribution modelling for scorelines, totals, and team totals.

M2

Dixon–Coles

Adjustments for low-scoring football outcomes and score dependencies.

M3

LightGBM

Machine-learning analysis for complex and nonlinear relationships.

M4

Monte Carlo Simulation

Repeated match simulations to estimate outcome distributions and uncertainty.

M5

Fair Odds & Expected Value

Model probabilities are converted into fair odds and compared with market prices.

M6

Kelly-Based Risk Management

Stake sizing is adjusted using estimated edge, confidence, volatility, and risk limits.

04Primary Data Sources
D1

FootyStats

Historical performance, expected goals, home and away metrics, league statistics, and advanced team data.

D2

Soccerway

Match events, lineups, official statistics, referee information, cards, corners, and post-match validation.

D3

Market Odds

Market pricing is evaluated independently from statistical datasets.

Additional sources may be used for supplementary research, but FootyStats and Soccerway remain the core football data providers.

05Current Development Status

Analytics Engine

Operational

Data Pipeline

Operational

Post-Match Review Workflow

Operational

Public Research Platform

In Development

European League Deployment

In Preparation

Pinnacle API Integration

Access Requested

EV Bet Engine is being developed incrementally. The current priority is reliability, transparency, and long-term maintainability rather than rapid feature expansion.

06Founder

Yuuki Okada

I started EV Bet Engine as someone who wanted to understand football betting markets more objectively.

Over time, curiosity became research, research became engineering, and engineering became a structured analytical platform.

The goal remains unchanged:

Build a transparent, data-driven football analytics platform that improves through disciplined research, real-world validation, and continuous learning.

07Contact

For business, partnership, research, or API-related communication:

contact@ev-bet.net